Greater Manchester PEEL 2018

We set out our detailed findings below. These are the basis for our judgment of the force’s performance in this area.

Assessing current demand

Greater Manchester Police hasn’t comprehensively analysed demand across all elements of police operations, but has undertaken some work to build understanding. It has a good understanding of the current demand relating to 999 and 101 calls coming into the operational communications branch. A review of digital investigations has also improved force understanding in that area. Following the investigation and safeguarding review, the force has enhanced its knowledge of demand in relation to investigations and safeguarding vulnerable people, but we found this review is yet to be fully implemented. It is also improving its understanding of local demand through its work towards place-based policing.

Since 2017, the force has experienced an increase in recorded crime, much of which it believes is due to action taken to improve its compliance with the NCRS. It has now determined baseline figures for five strategic threat areas: violent crime, serious violent crime, personal robbery, homicide and firearms-related crimes. The force is formulating plans to mitigate increases in these crime types, although these are in the early stages of development. We also found that data sharing with partner organisations – an important part of understanding demand – is done on a case-by-case basis rather than as part of an overall process for the strategic analysis of demand.

The force has completed some limited analysis of demand that is hidden or less likely to be reported, including the development of child sexual exploitation profiles. Undertaken for each district in late 2017, the analysis looked at likely or possible locations, vulnerable people and potential offenders. A previous profile for modern slavery has also not been updated since 2017. Within the last 12 months, officers have received a full-day of training in relation to human trafficking and modern slavery, to improve understanding. The force is making efforts to identify cases of female genital mutilation, which it considers to be widely under-reported. It has recorded one crime relating to female genital mutilation and is developing its approach through the tracking of imported surgical instruments. However, analysis and training in relation to female genital mutilation is limited.

A precept increase for 2018/19 was agreed by the mayor to enhance the neighbourhood policing provision in support of the police and crime plan commitment to tackle and prevent crime and anti-social behaviour. It is being used to recruit 50 more officers for neighbourhood policing teams and the force is working to ensure that every area receives more resourcing to support local policing and meet demand. Additionally, the recently introduced citizens’ contract was developed after wide consultation with the public. This contract states the seven ways in which the force will work with the public and partner agencies to build strong communities, and includes the responsible use of its resources to manage demand.

Understanding factors that influence demand

Each of the force’s change programmes includes processes to evaluate the impact of change on demand. Operation Ergo is an example of its initiatives to improve its internal processes. This programme aims to align supervision with a revised shift pattern for patrol officers, using new IT (iOPS) within the operational communications branch. The purpose is to reduce duplication within call handling and the demand on district supervisors. We found that individual departments also undertake activity to identify more efficient processes. For example, the finance department introduced streamlined forecasting processes and reports to budget holders. The force intends to support the implementation of the TOM with the development of an analytical hub to deliver operational analytics. This forms part of the introduction of iOPS and is being developed through a strategic partnership with an academic organisation.

The force uses the staff survey to identify a wide range of issues, and although it is not specifically aimed at identifying inefficient processes, the force does record these when they arise. Operation Ergo was a direct response to issues raised in the survey. Individual departments and districts also employ processes to identify inefficient working, but the force doesn’t record the full extent of this activity. This means it has only a partial picture of where inefficiency is identified and a reduced ability to remove waste.

The force reviews the grading of incidents recorded within the operational communications branch for allocation to its resources. While this process supports prioritisation of the response to incidents, we found some evidence of incidents being downgraded inappropriately. The force has data showing the number of incidents that are regraded, but we found that this is without context or rationale. As a result, the force can’t fully understand if true demand is being suppressed through this activity. It will need to make sure it has effective processes in place so that incidents are correctly regraded.

Working with others to meet demand

Greater Manchester Police is committed to collective working to improve demand management and works well with its partners. The force plays an important role as a member of the Greater Manchester Combined Authority and has strong links with each of the ten local authorities in Manchester. The TOM has a clear focus on providing better outcomes for residents by working in partnership. Further examples of the strong commitment to collaborative working include Operation Challenger, the multi-agency programme tackling serious and organised crime; the co-location of police and public sector staff across most districts to identify and tackle safeguarding, child sexual exploitation and modern slavery; and the contribution of staff from the three mental health authorities across Greater Manchester to the vulnerability support unit. The team provides medical information and advice to achieve better outcomes for vulnerable people affected by poor mental health. Early indications are that the unit is effective. A full evaluation is being undertaken by the NHS, although this work is not yet complete.

The implementation of place-based working with police and public sector partners identifying and tackling local issues is a foundation of the TOM. The force is testing this concept at several sites and reported that both 101 calls and repeat demand were being reduced. During our fieldwork, we also identified anecdotal evidence of reduced demand due to place-based working. However, the force is limited in the data that it gathers. It is therefore not clear how it will identify the impact of place-based working on future demand.

The force has a good understanding of the impact of reduced partnership resources on demand through its work with the Greater Manchester Combined Authority. The place-based working approach is designed to address this, with shared resources and responsibilities to tackle local demand. The approach of Operation Challenger replicates this in how it is responding to safeguarding concerns for child sexual exploitation and modern slavery. We found that the structure of place-based working and Operation Challenger varies across the ten districts. This is indicative of the challenges that local authorities face in providing the appropriate resources to support these initiatives. The impetus is there for a combined approach to tackle demand, but it remains to be seen how the force will overcome the variety of approaches and the reduced resources in the future.

Innovation and new opportunities

The force is prepared to look outside the police service for new ideas, and to partner with other organisations to develop and implement new initiatives. It is working with academia to assist its understanding of demand through demographics. The ‘big data’ programme sees the force working with Manchester Metropolitan University (MMU) to better understand policing demands now and for the future. MMU has produced academic reports on understanding early indicators of vulnerability in cases of domestic abuse, mental health and people missing from home. The research has been reported back to the project board and MMU is now working with the iOPS team to ‘operationalise’ the results in the form of analytics and mobile device support. The force is also looking to academia to help it deal with developing and increasing crime types such as cyber-crime, through the development of a programme to increase access to digital investigation skills. It is also having initial discussions with Manchester University to develop a means of tracking crypto-currency movement.

The force has started conversations with HSBC and Barclays banks, seeking to use their expertise to track the movement of money in offences such as fraud. It is also looking to introduce an appointment system to manage demand and has visited Wigan Council and British Gas to review their approaches. This means that the force will be able to identify and learn from good practice outside policing. Although there can be no doubting its ambition to work with others to develop new ideas, much of the work we saw was in the preliminary stages of development.

Investment and benefits

The force benefits from some investments. When mobile data technology was provided to officers and staff, system developers were required to demonstrate value achieved from the change, either through savings in officer time or improved data standards. Specific savings were also achieved through the reduction in resources for recording crime data. The iOPS business case was scrutinised by the mayor’s office, and the implementation plan includes a review of business benefits realisation. The force has also refreshed its investment governance structure. The benefits of planned changes are considered by subject-matter experts prior to final agreement, and approval by the chief constable is completed through submission of the business case, with the expectation that benefits are recognised. The force intends to improve benefits realisation and is due to host a National Police Chiefs’ Council workshop. This means that it can demonstrate how change will benefit its future planning.

The force considers that providing mobile devices to all officers brings efficiencies in terms of service and time saved. The force monitors officers’ use of these applications, sharing the data with district commanders. This has identified those officers who are low users of mobile solutions, who then receive tutoring to build their confidence. While there are clear processes for making investments, the force needs to do more to enhance benefits realisation.

Prioritising different types of demand

The force has some processes in place to identify and move resources to meet immediate fluctuations in demand and to meet short-term future demand requirements. Daily management meetings are held at district and force level to prioritise demand and move resources to deal with emerging immediate needs. These are known as Pacesetter meetings. One of the data sets considered at Pacesetter and produced daily by the operational communications branch is the total number of open incident logs. The data sets only provide numerical totals and are not sufficiently sophisticated to describe the type and complexity of the demand that sits behind the number of open incidents. Incidents that are over 72 hours old and involve vulnerability are subject to review at the Pacesetter meeting for prioritisation. The lack of detail could potentially lead to poorly informed decision making around the movement of resources to meet demand.

Greater Manchester Police holds a weekly force operational resource meeting, chaired by an assistant chief constable, with departmental and district representation from across the force. The intention of the meeting is to ensure that force-level resources have been deployed in accordance with the agreed force tasking priorities over the last seven days and to plan for changing needs. However, overall understanding of future demand is limited to forecasting three months ahead and, in the main, is limited to significant force events.

We found some good examples of the force reprioritising to deal with demand. The introduction of the Operation Ergo shift pattern has freed up resources. Fieldwork confirmed that, in areas where it has been introduced (Oldham, Rochdale and Tameside division), there has been consistent staffing over a 24-hour period. It has assisted in managing demand and has allowed a more proactive approach to policing and even the deployment of foot patrols. Following a review of demand within the digital investigations unit, a robust outsourcing policy has been put in place to manage standards for the outsourcing of low-level digital investigations. This is supported with a capital investment of £700,000.

Assigning resources to demand and understanding their costs

The force is managing a series of specific change programmes. Within them, it has clear processes to consider end-to-end processes and associated costs. The impact of these programmes is assessed through test activity prior to full implementation. By contrast, however, there is limited understanding of the varying costs of its overall service delivery and therefore the potential to make effective savings.

The ability of the force to reallocate resources to meet demand in the mid to longer term is hampered by its poor IT infrastructure and the current challenges that it faces in meeting day-to-day demand. Our inspection fieldwork found evidence that suggests the force faces challenges in meeting existing demand. With the future implementation of iOPS, the force plans to make data far more accessible and accurate, enabling informed decisions to be made regarding the reallocation of resources. This means it should be better placed to manage demand once iOPS is implemented.

Workforce capabilities

The force has done some work to understand what skills and capabilities it will need in the future, but this doesn’t amount to a comprehensive review of future requirements. And no comprehensive gap analysis or skills audit has been undertaken. This was identified as an area for improvement in our 2017 efficiency inspection and is further discussed in the future planning section of this report.

Greater Manchester Police has carried out a review of the digital investigation unit and is committed to increasing the staff from 35 to 72 by September 2019, investing £6.7m over four years. The force also carried out an investigation and safeguarding review which identified a shortfall of 150 detective officers and plans to invest £3.2m over four years to address the gap. It has a backlog in driver training, and this is having an impact on its ability to attend calls for service. It acknowledges that current staffing levels within driver training don’t meet the requirement of initial and refresher driver training across most levels of driver authority. The force has very recently agreed to fund an additional 11 driver trainers, which should begin to address the backlog. We found no confirmation of when the new staff will be in post, nor any projection as to when the backlog will be cleared. As such, the force cannot be confident that the impact of driver shortages and consequent difficulties in meeting incident-related demand will be only short term.

More efficient ways of working

The force actively monitors and evaluates the benefits expected from its change programmes. For example, the mobile data project made officer time efficiencies, altered practices and achieved savings within the crime recording units. The programme included incentivised budgets for the system developer company, where efficiencies had to be demonstrated prior to the release of payment. The force has also brought in external expertise to assist with benefits realisation from its significant investment in the iOPS programme.

Post-implementation reviews are incorporated into the force’s methodology. One example was the introduction of a new local policing model two years ago which was found to have unintended consequences in relation to shift systems and supervisory coverage. The post-implementation review led to the design of Operation Ergo which is now changing these patterns to meet demand more effectively.

The force has a good record for achieving savings. It has chosen to invest those savings in significant change to prepare for the future – for example, implementing the TOM, improving IT infrastructure and developing new ways for the public to make contact.

Working with others

The force has a clear rationale for partnership working as part of the Greater Manchester Combined Authority. The priorities in the police and crime plan ‘Standing Together’, published in March 2018, are clear: keeping people safe, reducing harm and offending, and strengthening communities and places. It is not a plan for the police alone, but recognises the contribution that Greater Manchester Police, other statutory agencies, the private sector, voluntary and community groups, and citizens can make.

The force is strongly committed to place-based working with public sector partners to improve demand management. While all districts have good tactical engagement with partners, they are at different stages of implementing place-based working. We heard anecdotal evidence that the place-based pilots in Wigan are having a positive impact on demand, but this evaluation is ongoing. The force plans to use the evaluation data to feed into post-implementation reviews, a finalisation report, and then into the understanding demand element of the next force management statement (FMS).

Using technology

The force recognises the threats from the increased criminal use of technology and is taking steps to address this. It carried out a review of its digital investigation unit, and is committed to increase the establishment by September 2019, making a significant investment of £6.7m over four years. It has also carried out a review of its investigation and safeguarding arrangements. Proposals for improvement include steps to address a shortfall of 150 detective officers, and a commitment to invest £3.2m over the next four years.

The force recognises that its current IT infrastructure is not fit for purpose and has embarked on an extensive IT transformation programme with iOPS and an investment of £71m. We recognise that implementing iOPS should bring benefits through accessible and accurate data, enabling the force to make informed decisions about resource allocation. Technology has also hampered its ability to undertake a comprehensive gap analysis and skills audit across the workforce.

The force invested £10m in mobile technology in 2016 and this is due to be renewed in 2019. It has good data in relation to the use of mobile technology and believes that officer visibility has increased and services have been enhanced, although this has yet to be quantified. The implementation of iOPS is due to start early in 2019. The force also plans to align its website to a national portal (the single online home), in spring 2019, to improve public access to services through online reporting.

Summary for question 1

We set out our detailed findings below. These are the basis for our judgment of the force’s performance in this area.

Assessing future demand for services

Greater Manchester Police has a limited understanding of how demand will change in the future. The force has an overarching demand strategy, led by the deputy chief constable, which takes account of the TOM programmes and other developments within the force. The main elements of the strategy include understanding, reducing and managing demand, which all have significant programmes of work. This involves understanding current demand as well as predicting future demand. Much of this work is at an early stage of development – for example, the recently introduced ‘predict demand’ scanning bulletin. This identifies a range of local and national issues that may affect future demand, such as the planned expansion of Manchester Airport.

The force hasn’t forecast future trends for all crime types. It has worked to improve its NCRS compliance, following our crime data integrity inspection, and has seen an increase in the number of reported incidents that are recorded as crimes. It has identified that improved application of the NCRS led to an increase in recorded domestic abuse crime. The introduction of an electronic flag on its systems has also enabled the force to calculate levels of knife-related crime. However, its current understanding of crime trends doesn’t enable it to understand what elements reflect true demand increases.

The force has recently determined baseline figures for five strategic threats: violent crime, serious violent crime, personal robbery, homicide and firearms-related crimes. It is now putting plans in place to mitigate these, although they are in the early stages of development. Overall, this means that Greater Manchester Police can’t plan effectively for the future unless it further develops its understanding of likely future demand.

The force is using improved technology to deal with future demand. It is due to launch iOPS in early 2019. This £71m programme has been developed to integrate several force IT systems: its command and control, crime, and intelligence platforms. iOPS will allow all records to be linked and searched for in one location, reducing duplication and improving efficiency. The force issued 6,000 mobile devices to officers and staff in 2016 and it is planning to upgrade these devices in 2019. It anticipates this will mean officers and staff can work smarter and faster, and will increase the visible policing presence in neighbourhoods.

Understanding public expectations

Greater Manchester Police uses several methods to understand public expectations, including annual surveys, force priority-setting arrangements and local neighbourhood engagement processes. It has a dedicated neighbourhoods, confidence and equalities (NCE) team which co-ordinates the force’s approach to involve citizens in policing, community engagement, and equality and diversity The NCE team is developing a force engagement strategy to include guidance and toolkits for local community engagement plans and the further development of communities and citizens in policing and problem solving. The TOM, which includes the citizens’ contract, was developed after wide consultation with the public and is a positive development. The consultation spanned an18-month period, included public meetings and engaged approximately 3,500 residents across Manchester seeking their views. The force has since identified communities that did not engage in the public consultation as widely as others and plans to adapt its consultation to gather their views in the future.

The public contact programme has an ‘enabling channel shift’ project. It aims to make the force more accessible and reduce demand on call handlers by providing different methods for the public to make contact. Through its engagement, the force found that the public would prefer to record crime online and through self-service channels. The project will focus on the provision of new technology to support this, and the introduction of the ‘Live Chat’ web facility resulted from the consultation. The force is also creating a single online home in April 2019 for reporting road traffic collisions and other incidents.
collisions and other incidents.

Prioritising

The priorities in the police and crime plan ‘Standing Together’, published in March 2018, are clear: keeping people safe, reducing harm and offending, and strengthening communities and places. It is not a plan for the police alone, but recognises the contribution that Greater Manchester Police, other statutory agencies, the private sector, voluntary and community groups, and citizens can make. The concept of place-based working, already being tried out in some districts, has at its heart partnership and collaboration with statutory agencies and communities. The force is also investing £6.6m in digital investigation over the next four years. This clearly links to the police and crime plan commitments to keep children safe from sexual exploitation, increase understanding of online vulnerability and improve online safety. The recent recruitment of 50 officers to support neighbourhood policing teams and tackle crime and anti-social behaviour demonstrates how the force allocates resources to improve services that matter to the public. This means that while not all priorities are explicit within the force’s change programme, important elements are incorporated to enhance its response to threats in the future.

Future workforce

Greater Manchester Police has a limited understanding of the skills it requires to meet future demand. The force aspires to evaluate future skill requirements of the TOM and has a project bringing workforce planning, HR and financial planning together, which were previously distinct functions. The intention is to develop an integrated approach and apply this broader thinking to projects in the future. Training requirements are based on existing and predicted gaps (for example leavers), rather than the skills identified as necessary to meet anticipated future demand. In some areas, such as public order, the force is confident that it has a good understanding of demand and skills requirements. However, it was reported that this involved a manual, labour-intensive process to identify gaps across all disciplines. The force has identified the top five detective training requirements and produced a delivery plan through to 2020. These were identified following consultation with senior leaders within investigative departments, rather than through the functionality of force IT systems. The force has a project underway to provide a technical solution to improve skills gaps identification, but initial improvements will take at least six months. The force has reviewed the capacity and capability of its digital investigations unit against current and future demand and is investing £6.6m over the next four years. This has included the appointment of a superintendent for cyber-crime to lead this work.

The force’s investigation and safeguarding review merged the crime investigation and public protection investigation teams across the force. Where currently implemented, this has resulted in greater resilience to deal with crime that causes serious harm. However, the force has identified a shortage of detective officers. At the time of inspection, this amounted to some 150 vacancies and the force is taking steps to reduce that number. It is making use of Police Now and, in the first year, recruited nine police officers using this process. In the second year, this increased to 25, with a target of 50 for the next financial year. It will also become a northern academy for Police Now from 2019. The force makes use of the direct entry scheme, recruiting three superintendents and four inspectors using this process. It also uses external recruitment for transferees, successfully recruiting firearms officers. It is exploring professional apprenticeships to bring young people through and has had some success with recruiting officers and staff from those apprentices. But the force also recognises that recruiting into specialist areas such as IT and finance is challenging, as it can’t compete in terms of salary with private sector organisations.

Finance plans

Following its 2010 consultation revaluing public sector pensions, the government announced, in 2016 and 2018, reductions in the discount rate it uses to set contribution rates for the unfunded public service pension schemes. These include the police service pension scheme. A lower discount rate will result in higher contribution rates for the employer. The official notification of a lower rate in September 2018 did not allow police and crime commissioners (PCCs) and mayors time to include the impact in their financial planning. In December 2018, the government announced a pension grant for 2019/20 for each PCC and mayor. It allocated funding to each force to specifically help the police pay for these increased costs in the next year. PCCs and mayors must now plan for how they will finance the increased costs in the following years, assessing the impact on their officer numbers and their ability to provide effective and efficient services.

Greater Manchester Police has considered the impact of proposed changes in employer pension contributions and has calculated that the potential pension liability would amount to an additional £7.9m in 2019/20, and £19.7m the year after. The force has recently started modelling scenarios to determine what it will mean if it receives a reduced precept increase, pension deficit or both. Should both of these scenarios arise at once, the force would face a £16m shortfall for 2019/20. Such changes may lead to a further reduction in resources. Any requirement to reduce workforce numbers will have a significant impact on force planning and the ability to meet future demand within Greater Manchester.

The Greater Manchester Police change portfolio is closely aligned with its financial planning. This is particularly evident in its capital investment in areas such as iOPS and transforming the operational communications branch through the enabling channel shift project – all integral elements of plans to deal with future demand through its TOM.

The force has a good record of achieving savings and has plans to make £37.9m of savings over the four years of the medium-term financial strategy (MTFS), with a deficit of £1.5m remaining by 2021/22. The precept increase for 2018/19 was invested in 50 additional officers for neighbourhood policing and this was supported by the public. The MTFS includes assumptions of a further precept increase for 2019/20, and the force plans to add a further 50 officers for neighbourhood policing.

The Mayor of Greater Manchester maintains a police fund reserves strategy that covers the period 2018/19 through to 2020/21. These reserves are clearly identified and, as well as general reserves, there are funds earmarked to support insurance requirements, private-finance initiative needs, budgetary risks, the police and crime plan, and capital expenditure.

Leadership and workforce development

Succession planning for senior leaders within Greater Manchester Police is unclear and the force has identified a risk in relation to the demographic of its senior leaders, with potential for people in crucial posts to leave or retire at a similar time. To plan effectively for the future, it needs to address this soon. The force has undertaken a promotion process review and made changes that incorporated feedback received from staff. Promotion processes are now broadly the same for every rank, including an assessment centre and incorporating members of the community in interviews to give an independent perspective. These revised processes are currently applied only to officers, and the force recognises this as a gap.

The force has introduced new performance development reviews (PDRs) for all officers, but it has no co-ordinated means to determine how many have been completed. Senior leaders described performance review processes as ‘clunky’, and the force is still in negotiation with unions to introduce new PDRs for staff. There is a risk that, in addition to the force being unable to understand and manage performance and development, staff won’t feel valued if an effective personal development process is not in place. The force has recently developed a detailed plan for introducing a talent management framework and has taken initial steps by advertising the process on the intranet and through chief officer team messages. Previously, talent management processes were managed locally within districts and departments, but the force now plans to manage these centrally, to provide greater transparency and ensure fairness. It recognises that this is easier to arrange for police officers than for police staff. It is working to identify and bring together a small group of high-potential individuals from among its police staff, support them to work within various departments across the force and increase the breadth of their experience.

Ambition to improve

Greater Manchester Police has a comprehensive change portfolio, which is directly linked to the MTFS and supports the implementation of the TOM. The change portfolio has several programmes, each with clear governance and an identified chief officer responsible for leading developments. The programmes are: transforming public contact, improving operational policing, building better outcomes, building a better organisation, and transforming information systems. The change portfolio brings together several work programmes already underway and others to prepare the force for future demand, including iOPS – a significant investment to improve the force IT infrastructure. The programme has already provided mobile data to equip the workforce to be more agile and responsive, and is due for additional investment in 2019. We found that other elements of the change portfolio are less well developed – for example, ‘project 11’ within the building a better organisation programme, which considers the understanding of future skills requirements and skills gaps, as well as the development of career pathways.

The force’s approach to change is to undertake reviews and pilot options. The review of neighbourhood policing led to the development of the TOM, and implementation began after trials of the concept. The force continues to test the concept of place-based working and every district has a place-based integration pilot. The force aims to continually review, refine and improve ideas as they are implemented. An example is Operation Ergo, part of its ongoing work to review and improve local policing. This leadership and culture change programme incorporates the trial of a new shift pattern at the Oldham and Tameside divisions. The intention is to improve resilience and morale, and provide more deployable officers on each patrol shift, enabling neighbourhood beat officers to focus on crime prevention and anti-social behaviour.

The force employs various methods to audit and challenge its plans. These include the audit of accounts by an external independent auditor, specific audits undertaken by the Greater Manchester Combined Authority, contracting independent reviews and engagement with other forces to conduct reviews. The force is currently engaging the Metropolitan Police Service to review plans for a single online home, due to be launched in spring 2019.

The force has established collaborations with local authorities as part of the Greater Manchester Combined Authority, and future policing through the TOM relies on this collaborative approach. The force believes that collaboration with other forces in the counter-terrorism unit has worked well, including developments to improve regional recruitment into the unit. The force also intends working with higher education institutions locally to implement the Police Education Qualifications Framework. It also aspires to work with other blue light services. It has some co-location for mental health triage in place and early figures show the benefits.

A significant proportion of savings over the next four years depends on leavers finishing on a high pay point and starters beginning on a lower salary point. Some 1,800 officers (33 percent of the workforce) are expected to leave during this period. While this has implications for the force in terms of loss of experience and training requirements, it also presents it with substantial savings. The force has chosen to invest those savings in significant change to prepare for the future, including the TOM, improving IT infrastructure and developing ways to improve public contact. It also plans to make some use of national police transformation fund resources in relation to the digital public contact programme for its single online home project.

Summary for question 2