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Metropolitan PEEL 2016

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The force says...

The Met is London’s police service: the biggest in the UK and the largest city force in the European Union, ensuring the safety and security of a thriving political, economic, cultural and technological capital. London is a global city with an ever-changing population that is expected to reach 9 million by 2020.

Alongside policing a geographical area of 620 square miles across 32 boroughs, the Met has a significant number of officers and staff in specialist crime, investigations and operations. The Met has responsibility for protection in royal, diplomatic and parliamentary matters and is a significant presence in the national response to serious and organised criminality.

The Met has 31,075 police officers – around 25% of the England and Wales total, policing 14.6% of the England and Wales population and dealing with 20.6% of all crime.

The Met continues to become more efficient through a significant change programme which has to date delivered £573m in savings. An additional £423m in savings are to be made by 2021.

Whilst some volume/traditional crimes, such as residential burglary have decreased, there has been a rise in the identification and reporting of more complex crime types including terrorist offences, sexual offences and online crime. Protecting vulnerable people in London is a priority. The scale of this task is huge and challenging: in 2016 25,000 children were reported missing; there were 15,841 investigations into child abuse, including 2,938 investigations into child sexual abuse and 74,427 domestic incidents; but it is one that the Met is committed to.

The next few years present significant challenges to the organisation: the likelihood of further financial pressures alongside a shifting and increasingly complex crime picture mean the Met will once again need to respond to deliver the safest global city to which we aspire.

Disclaimer: the above statement has been prepared by Metropolitan Police Service. The views and information in it are not necessarily those of HMICFRS.

HMIC says...

The Metropolitan Police Service provides policing services to Greater London. The police force area covers over 607 square miles in the south east of England. Although there are areas of acute deprivation within the force area there are also areas of extreme affluence. Around 8.7 million people live in a predominantly urban setting. The force covers the urban conurbation of Greater London, including the City of Westminster. The resident population is ethnically very diverse, with 40 percent from black, Asian and minority ethnic communities, and is increased by a very large number of university students and the very large numbers who visit, socialise in, commute into, or travel through the area each year. The transport infrastructure includes major rail stations, public transport hubs and major airports.

England and Wales is made up of over 181,000 small areas known as census output areas (OAs). These have been defined by the Office for National Statistics to group together people with similar characteristics and to include, on average, 125 households. The size of the geographical area covered by each OA varies according to the population density in different parts of the country. The largest OA in England and Wales covers 20,166 hectares, and the smallest less than 0.02 hectares. A football pitch is approximately 0.75 of a hectare.

There are 25,015 OAs in Greater London with an average size of 6 hectares, which is much smaller than the national average of 87 hectares. Almost all (91 percent) of the OAs in Greater London are relatively small at under 10 hectares and none over 100 hectares, indicating the urban conurbation.

The advantage of analysis at output area level is that it supports a people-centred approach. Differences in the socio-economic characteristics of people who live in different OAs lead to different behaviours, including the use of public services. These differences are reflected in the information that is collected in large data sets such as the census, the Ordnance Survey (OS) point of interest data and other quasi-economic sources that have been used in this analysis.

HMIC has been working with the London School of Economics to use econometric techniques to statistically model and predict the level of reactive demands for police services in each OA in England and Wales. Using police incident data and several thousand characteristics (variables) drawn from the census data, OS point of interest data and other smaller data sets for each OA, it has been possible to predict the number of incidents for each OA and determine how challenging each OA is likely to be to police. We have also used the house prices from the Land Registry as a proxy indicator of wealth. Greater London has a median house price, based on the OAs that have had a property transaction within the last 12 months, of £452,000 which is higher than the median of England and Wales (£230,358). Greater London has 0.3 percent of its OAs within the lowest 10 percent of house prices nationally, while 73.7 percent of OAs are within the top 10 percent of house prices nationally (and 37.8 percent of OAs are within the top 1 percent). This suggests that there are large areas of acute affluence and high house prices, with a very small proportion of lower value housing and acute deprivation.

The demands for police services are not the same in every area of England and Wales.  Our analysis has revealed that the socio-demographic characteristics of an area influence the demands for police services in that area.

In every police force, there is a concentration of predicted demands in a small number of its OAs. Taking England and Wales as a whole the most challenging 1,811 (1 percent) of these account for 10.8 percent of all the predicted incidents. We have designated these areas of very high challenge and found that they are characterised by a high concentration of people living, working, socialising or travelling in the area. Features which both cause and/or indicated a concentration of people include the number of commercial premises, including licensed premises, fast food premises, public transport and social deprivation. In some areas, these features are in combination.

22.4 percent of the very high challenge areas nationally are in Greater London. The highest-challenge one percent of OAs in the force account for 10.0 percent of Greater London’s predicted incidents, these predicted demands are likely to occur in only 5.5 percent of the total area of the force.

Within Greater London:

  • the proportion of OAs that are a very high challenge to police based on the predicted level of incidents is very high compared with the national level of one percent;
  • the proportion of OAs that are a very high challenge to police based on the predicted level of crime is very high compared with the national level of one percent;
  • the proportion of OAs that are a very high challenge to police based on the predicted level of anti-social behaviour is very high compared with the national level of one percent;
  • the proportion of OAs that are very high challenge to police for the predicted level of emergency and priority calls for assistance at incidents is higher than the national level of one percent; and
  • the proportion of OAs that are very high challenge to police for the predicted level of emergency and priority calls for assistance at crimes is very high compared with the national level of one percent.

As an indication of the challenge for the police to reach citizens in all parts of Greater London we calculated the average travel time and distance from the central point of the force area to the centre of each of the 25,015 OAs. These calculations of distance and time are based on using the road network under normal driving conditions and speeds, and indicate the size of the area and the quality of its road network.

Greater London has 37 miles of motorways and trunk roads; the average travel distance of 9 miles (longest 25 miles and shortest 0.2 miles) and the average travel time of 25 minutes from the centre of the force to each OA are lower than the respective national averages of 17 miles and 30 minutes. This demonstrates the size and complexity of Greater London and the nature of its roads.

While the concentration of demands in a small number of locations (covering a very small area) may be helpful in focusing resources, it is not the totality of demand. The provision of services extends beyond those areas that are a very high challenge to police and includes the least challenging and most remote areas. The challenge of providing services throughout Greater London is a function of many things including the size and topography of the area, the road network and how congested the roads are. These considerations influence how police resources are organised and managed – for example, where police officers are based and their working patterns.

Key facts

Force Area

607 square miles

Population

8.53m people 15% local 10 yr change

Workforce

81% frontline 78% national level
5.3 per 1000 population 3.6 national level
14% change in local workforce since 2010 15% national change since 2010

Victim-based crimes

0.07 per person 0.06 national level
Local 5 year trend National 5 year trend (no change)

Cost

87p per person per day local 55p per person per day national

Context Facts

Output area facts

Force Area E&W Level
Number 25,015 181,358
Avg Size 6 hectares 87 hectares
Largest 1,226 hectares 20,166 hectares
Smallest 0.02 hectares 0.02 hectares
% < 10 hectares 91% 58%
% > 100 hectares 0% 15%

Travel facts

Force Area E&W Level
Median distance 9 miles 17 miles
Median time 25 minutes 30 minutes
M-way and trunk road 37 miles 5,523 miles

House facts

Force Area E&W Level
Median house price £452,000 £230,358
% OAs in national top 10% house prices 74% 20%
% OAs in national bottom 10% house prices 0% 11%

Challenge facts

Force Area E&W Level
Predicted incidents in 1% of OAs 10% 11%
Crime very high challenge OA 1.64% 1.00%
ASB very high challenge OA 1.66% 1.00%
Incident very high challenge OA 1.62% 1.00%
Incident calls very high challenge OA 1.40% 1.00%
Crime calls very high challenge OA 1.55% 1.00%