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Cheshire PEEL 2016

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The force says...

Cheshire Constabulary serves a population of over one million people across a large geographic area; from rural expanses to areas of extensive heavy industry and urban areas including Chester and Warrington with their vibrant daytime and night-time economies. The county has ambitious plans to improve the infrastructure to support significant economic development including the Atlantic Gateway Project and Crewe HS2 Superhub.

Cheshire has challenges policing diverse areas, with pockets of wealth contrasting with localities amongst the most deprived in the country. It is home to a large student population with the University of Chester and Manchester Metropolitan University having major campuses in the county.

The Constabulary works in partnership with four local authorities; to respond to adult and children safeguarding; to support families with complex needs and to tackle crime and disorder through Community Safety Partnerships and serious and organised crime partnership boards.

Cheshire shares borders with two major metropolitan areas; Manchester and Liverpool and the international airports serving these cities are within close proximity. More than 200 miles of motorway run through the county.

This diverse mix poses a variety of policing challenges from tackling alcohol related crime, drug crime, organised crime groups and cross-border criminality to the prevention and investigation of rural, wildlife and heritage crime.

The Creamfields festival, attended by up to 70,000 people annually, is one of the Constabulary’s most significant events.

In 2015/16 the Force dealt with 249,037 calls for assistance and recorded 52,467 crimes, a reduction in crime of 2.2% compared to 2014/15. Cheshire has observed year-on-year reductions in recorded crime for the previous 10 years.

Cheshire Constabulary has a budget of £193 million (£165 million net).

Policing in Cheshire is provided by over 4,000 men and women with 2,003 police officers supported by PCSOs, special constables, volunteers and police staff.

Disclaimer: the above statement has been prepared by Cheshire Constabulary. The views and information in it are not necessarily those of HMICFRS.

HMIC says...

Cheshire Constabulary provides policing services to the county of Cheshire. The police force area covers 905 square miles and a coastline of approximately 67 miles in the north west of England. Although there are some areas of marked affluence, Cheshire is generally poor. Around one million people mainly live in the urban centres which include the city of Chester and the towns of Warrington, Crewe and Macclesfield. The resident population is increased by university students and the large numbers who visit, socialise, or travel through the county each year. The transport infrastructure includes major rail stations.

England and Wales is made up of over 181,000 small areas known as census output areas (OAs). These have been defined by the Office for National Statistics to group together people with similar characteristics and to include, on average, 125 households. The size of the geographical area covered by each OA varies according to the population density in different parts of the country. The largest OA in England and Wales covers 20,166 hectares, and the smallest less than 0.02 hectares. A football pitch is approximately 0.75 of a hectare.

There are 3,418 OAs in Cheshire with an average size of 69 hectares which is smaller than the national average of 87 hectares. While the majority (58 percent) of OAs in Cheshire are relatively small at under 10 hectares, a smaller proportion (12 percent) are extremely large in size (over 100 hectares) indicating the mixture of urban and rural localities. The smallest OAs are concentrated in Chester, Warrington and other towns, with the largest spread across the more sparsely populated rural areas.

The advantage of analysis at output area level is that it supports a people-centred approach. Differences in the socio-economic characteristics of people who live in different OAs lead to different behaviours, including the use of public services. These differences are reflected in the information that is collected in large data sets such as the census, the Ordnance Survey (OS) point of interest data and other quasi-economic sources that have been used in this analysis.

HMIC has been working with the London School of Economics to use econometric techniques to statistically model and predict the level of reactive demands for police services in each OA in England and Wales. Using police incident data and several thousand characteristics (variables) drawn from the census data, OS point of interest data and other smaller data sets for each OA, it has been possible to predict the number of incidents for each OA and determine how challenging each OA is likely to be to police. We have also used the house prices from the Land Registry as a proxy indicator of wealth. Cheshire has a median house price, based on the OAs that have had a property transaction within the last 12 months, of £179,000 which is lower than the median of England and Wales (£230,358). Cheshire has 11.2 percent of its OAs within the lowest 10 percent of house prices nationally, while 14.6 percent of OAs are within the top 10 percent of house prices nationally (and 4.7 percent of OAs are within the top 1 percent). This suggests that while there are areas of affluence and high house price, there is a large proportion of lower value housing.

The demands for police services are not the same in every area of England and Wales.  Our analysis has revealed that the socio-demographic characteristics of an area influence the demands for police services in that area.

In every police force, there is a concentration of predicted demands in a small number of its OAs. Taking England and Wales as a whole the most challenging 1,811 (1 percent) of these account for 10.8 percent of all the predicted incidents.  We have designated these areas of very high challenge and found that they are characterised by a high concentration of people living, working, socialising or travelling in the area.  Features which both cause and/or indicated a concentration of people include the number of commercial premises, including licensed premises, fast food premises, public transport and social deprivation.  In some areas, these features are in combination.

2.8 percent of the very high challenge areas nationally are in Cheshire. The highest challenge one percent of OAs in the force account for 18.2 percent of Cheshire’s predicted incidents, these predicted demands are likely to occur in only 5.3 percent of the total area of the force.

Within Cheshire:

  • the proportion of OAs that are a very high challenge to police based on the predicted level of incidents is higher than the national level of one percent;
  • the proportion of OAs that are a very high challenge to police based on the predicted level of crime is broadly in line with the national level of one percent;
  • the proportion of OAs that are a very high challenge to police based on the predicted level of anti-social behaviour is broadly in line with the national level of one percent;
  • the proportion of OAs that are very high challenge to police for the predicted level of emergency and priority calls for assistance at incidents is very high compared with the national level of one percent; and
  • the proportion of OAs that are very high challenge to police for the predicted level of emergency and priority calls for assistance at crimes is broadly in line with the national level of one percent.

As an indication of the challenge for the police to reach citizens in all parts of Cheshire we calculated the average travel time and distance from the central point of the force area to the centre of each of the 3,418 OAs. These calculations of distance and time are based on using the road network under normal driving conditions and speeds, and indicate the size of the area and the quality of its road network.

Cheshire has 103 miles of motorways and trunk roads; the average travel distance of 16 miles (longest 35 miles and shortest 0.3 miles) and the average travel time of 30 minutes from the centre of the force to each OA are in line with the respective national averages of 17 miles and 30 minutes.

While the concentration of demands in a small number of locations (covering a very small area) may be helpful in focusing resources, it is not the totality of demand. The provision of services extends beyond those areas that are a very high challenge to police and includes the least challenging and most remote areas. The challenge of providing services throughout Cheshire is a function of many things including the size and topography of the area, the road network and how congested the roads are. These considerations influence how police resources are organised and managed – for example, where police officers are based and their working patterns.

Key facts

Force Area

905 square miles

Population

1.04m people 5% local 10 yr change

Workforce

74% frontline 78% national level
3.3 per 1000 population 3.6 national level
14% change in local workforce since 2010 15% national change since 2010

Victim-based crimes

0.04 per person 0.06 national level
Local 5 year trend National 5 year trend (no change)

Cost

47p per person per day local 55p per person per day national

Context Facts

Output area facts

Force Area E&W Level
Number 3,418 181,358
Avg Size 69 hectares 87 hectares
Largest 3,544 hectares 20,166 hectares
Smallest 0.58 hectares 0.02 hectares
% < 10 hectares 58% 58%
% > 100 hectares 12% 15%

Travel facts

Force Area E&W Level
Median distance 16 miles 17 miles
Median time 30 minutes 30 minutes
M-way and trunk road 103 miles 5,523 miles

House facts

Force Area E&W Level
Median house price £179,000 £230,358
% OAs in national top 10% house prices 15% 20%
% OAs in national bottom 10% house prices 11% 11%

Challenge facts

Force Area E&W Level
Predicted incidents in 1% of OAs 18% 11%
Crime very high challenge OA 0.97% 1.00%
ASB very high challenge OA 1.23% 1.00%
Incident very high challenge OA 1.49% 1.00%
Incident calls very high challenge OA 1.67% 1.00%
Crime calls very high challenge OA 1.05% 1.00%